The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted regulatory approval for prediction market platform Polymarket to resume US operations through a no-action letter issued to QCX LLC on Sept. 3.
The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight and the Division of Clearing and Risk announced that they will not pursue enforcement action against QCX LLC or QC Clearing LLC regarding swap data reporting and record-keeping requirements for event contracts.
Regulatory greenlight
The letter applies only to narrow circumstances and mirrors similar regulatory relief granted to other designated contract markets.
The approval enables Polymarket to operate event contracts while maintaining compliance with federal derivatives regulations through its QCX partnership structure.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan celebrated the development on social media, crediting the Commission for “impressive work” and noting the process was completed in “record timing.”
Coplan indicated US operations would launch soon, posting “stay tuned” to his announcement.
The regulatory green light marks a return for Polymarket, which ceased US operations in 2022 following CFTC settlement over unregistered derivatives trading.
The platform paid $1.4 million to resolve those charges and blocked American users from accessing its prediction markets.
Polymarket accelerated its efforts for a US return in July, when the US Department of Justice and the CFTC concluded the probe into the prediction market. Less than a week later, Polymarket acquired QCX in a $112 million deal.
On Aug. 26, Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board amid an undisclosed investment from its venture capital firm 1789 Capital.
Oracle validation concerns persist
Despite regulatory approval, recent controversies sparked new debates over market resolution mechanisms.
Most recently, a social media user with the moniker Easy shared a Sept. 2 dispute over a Strategy Bitcoin purchase prediction that exposed ambiguities in bet formulation and oracle validation processes.
Meanwhile, other user complaints in recent weeks and months have centered around a market related to whether Strategy acquired Bitcoin between specific dates.
Despite the company confirming purchases within the timeframe, market resolution remained uncertain due to wording discrepancies between the market title and underlying rules.
However, commentators argued that the platform adhered to written rules rather than market titles, noting that such practices maintain consistency across prediction markets since January.
The recent debate adds to the pile of discussions over how Polymarket needs Uma’s oracles to validate results, and how UMA holders can manipulate the decisions.
Token holders must stake UMA to decide on outcomes. However, if they don’t vote according to the majority, they lose their tokens. This dynamic creates a power imbalance towards UMA whales.
Despite the controversies, Polymarket’s return positions the platform to compete in the growing US prediction market sector, where political and economic forecasting has gained mainstream adoption.
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