Ethereum has mirrored Bitcoin’s recent recovery trend, posting a near 10% gain over the past week. The asset had previously experienced a sharp correction, but its latest rally saw prices climb toward the $1,600 mark.
However, the momentum has shown signs of slowing in the past 24 hours, with ETH slipping by around 4% to trade at $1,574 as of the time of writing. This decline comes amid renewed global macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting on-chain activity that may influence short-term market dynamics.
Historical Patterns and External Macro Impact
One of the most recent signals comes from an uptick in Ethereum inflows to derivative exchanges. According to Amr Taha, a contributor to the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, more than 77,000 ETH were transferred to derivative exchanges on April 16—the largest single-day inflow in both March and April.
This spike follows similar inflow events on March 26 and April 3, both of which preceded notable price declines for Ethereum. These inflows suggest a possible rise in hedging activity or short positioning by traders preparing for additional volatility.
Taha’s analysis emphasizes that these inflows are not occurring in isolation. On-chain behavior reveals a pattern of significant ETH movements to derivatives markets followed by price drops. On March 26, an inflow of approximately 65,000 ETH was followed by a sharp decline in price.
A similar scenario played out on April 3, leading to further weakness. The April 16 inflow of 77,000 ETH now raises questions about whether Ethereum may be facing another pullback, especially as it hovers near multi-month lows.
This market behavior is also being influenced by geopolitical tensions. Recent trade actions from China—which include retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural and technological goods—have contributed to a broader risk-off sentiment in financial markets.
Taha notes that such macroeconomic shifts often trigger outflows from volatile assets like cryptocurrencies, as investors seek safer alternatives such as U.S. Treasuries or fiat currencies.
Institutional Strategy and Short-Term Outlook
The consistency of these large-scale inflows to derivatives platforms points toward institutional or large-holder strategies, where ETH is likely being moved to hedge portfolios or open short positions.
While this doesn’t necessarily confirm a downward trend, it does reflect heightened caution among more experienced market participants. The link between macro factors and on-chain behavior highlights how external shocks can influence market sentiment and trading patterns.
Although Ethereum has shown signs of price recovery, the recent spike in derivatives activity and rising geopolitical tension add complexity to its short-term outlook.
Overall, it is considerable to monitor on-chain flows closely, alongside global economic indicators, to better understand where ETH might head next. Continued pressure in derivatives markets could act as a signal of sustained market uncertainty, even as some signs of accumulation emerge.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
