Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who declared in 2018 that Bitcoin was more likely to crash to $100 than rally to $100,000, has returned. He indirectly admitted he was wrong and outlined reasons why his prediction fell through.
Harvard Economist Breaks Silence On Missed Bitcoin Prediction
In an X post, Rogoff identified himself as the Harvard economist who said that Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than $100,000. He then went on to comment on what he missed when he made this prediction. First, the economist said that he was far too optimistic about the U.S. coming to its senses about sensible crypto regulation.
Rogoff, who was the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), indicated that the Donald Trump administration has gone about Bitcoin and crypto regulation in the wrong way. He questioned why policymakers would want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities, likely in reference to regulations such as the GENIUS Act, which have provided regulatory clarity.
It is worth mentioning that one of the reasons the Harvard economist had predicted that Bitcoin was more likely to go to $100 was based on his belief that government regulation would trigger lower prices. He had made this prediction when BTC was trading at around $11,000. Rogoff claimed back then that the flagship crypto needed global regulation to crack down on its use for money laundering.
The former IMF chief believed that if this regulation took away the possibility of money laundering and tax evasion, then Bitcoin’s actual use cases for transactions were very small. As such, he was banking on BTC lacking any demand, which would drive its price lower rather than higher.
However, that hasn’t been the case as government regulation has only boosted Bitcoin’s demand. The flagship crypto rallied to $100,000, a price level Rogoff said it won’t reach, for the first time last year following Donald Trump’s victory. Meanwhile, BTC has reached new highs on the back of regulatory clarity, including its rally to a previous all-time high (ATH) just before the passage of the GENIUS Act last month.
Further Reasons For The Missed Prediction
The Harvard economist also stated that he did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transaction medium of choice in the $20 trillion global underground economy. He further remarked that this demand puts a floor on its price.
In addition to being a transaction medium of choice, BTC has also gained a reputation as a store of value, which has created demand for it among traditional finance (TradFi) investors. These investors have gained exposure to Bitcoin mainly through the ETFs. Interestingly, Harvard recently revealed a $117 million stake in BlackRock’s BTC ETF.
Lastly, Rogoff said that he did not anticipate a situation where regulators, especially the regulator in chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in crypto without consequence, considering the “blatant conflict of interest.”
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $113,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
