After a steady decline, Toncoin (TON) has seen a slight price increase over the past day, rising by 1.7% to $3.85. This movement comes amidst ongoing discussions about its longer-term performance and accumulation trends.
According to an analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Shiven Moodley, there are indications that TON holders are positioning for a potential rebound.
Moodley’s observations, which are detailed in a recent post on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, suggest that the asset may be entering an accumulation phase despite its recent downward trajectory.
Toncoin Shows Signs of Accumulation
Moodley points to several metrics as evidence. The 180-day Sharpe Ratio, a measure of risk-adjusted returns, signals a period of accumulation. This is further supported by stable TVL (Total Value Locked) in lending protocols and a noticeable reduction in speculative trading activity.
Notably, the asset’s volatility has declined since the price spikes in December 2024 and February 2025. If this trend persists, it could imply that selling pressure is diminishing, potentially paving the way for a future rebound.
Key on-chain indicators also paint a picture of potential opportunity. The Normalized Risk Metric (NRM), which evaluates TON’s valuation relative to historical moving averages, highlights accumulation at a price level of $3.82.
Additionally, record lows in the Long-Term NRM suggest that longer-term holders are increasingly accumulating TON at these levels. Historically, similar setups have preceded market recoveries, giving investors a reason to believe that a medium-term price reversal may be on the horizon.
Moodley wrote:
It remains to be seen whether TON’s price action can stage a full recovery. However, long-term accumulation traders are best positioned to benefit from macro policy changes that could shift sentiment in the broader crypto market. The conditions could align for a potential rebound with selling pressure fading and risk metrics signalling a low-risk environment.
On-Chain Metrics Hint at Long-Term Opportunity
Another metric Moodley pointed out is the Risk Exposure Ratio—which tracks leveraged positions within TON’s DeFi ecosystem—it has recently reached a new high, exceeding 0.24 in early 2025. This suggests a growing influence of leveraged activity.
However, if the ratio begins to decline, it could indicate a stabilization in market conditions, potentially leading to more stable price movements.
Furthermore, the Probability of Spend metric shows that coins older than 400 days are unlikely to move, indicating strong conviction among long-term holders. This trend has historically correlated with phases of accumulation and recovery.
As Moodley notes, short- to medium-term holders appear to be exiting their positions, likely contributing to the recent price weakness. Meanwhile, long-term holders remain consistent, suggesting a belief in the asset’s long-term potential.
If selling pressure continues to ease and risk metrics improve, TON could be setting the stage for a more favorable market environment. In this scenario, long-term investors may be well-positioned to benefit from potential macroeconomic shifts that could ultimately boost Toncoin’s value.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
