The phrase “Uptober” has gained popularity in the crypto market, as October has historically delivered gains in the past. For the XRP price, however, the picture looks very different. A closer look at its history shows a mix of big wins and painful losses, making October far less predictable.
Removing the extreme years shows that the data points to flat or negative results, which means investors counting on an explosive rally may end up disappointed. Although the last quarter of the year has brought substantial gains in some cases, the overall record remains inconsistent, suggesting that “Uptober” may be more of a myth than a promise for XRP holders.
Historical Data Challenges The “Uptober” Hype For XRP Price
Every October, the crypto community hopes that coins will rise, and while Bitcoin sometimes lives up to this expectation, XRP’s history tells a different story. Data from CryptoRank shows that XRP has experienced some notable fluctuations in October over the last decade. In 2013, the token soared by more than 94%. In 2014, it jumped 130%. In 2020, it even delivered an explosive rally of nearly 179% in just one month.
But these massive rallies are rare. In many other years, the results were disappointing. For example, the XRP price suffered double-digit losses in October of 2018 and 2021. In other years, gains were delivered only in tiny amounts, far below what traders had hoped for. Stripping away the highs and lows makes the overall trend clear. The median October return for XRP is actually a slight loss of 1.79%, and the average return is even worse at -4.58%.
This data suggests that October is far more likely to bring disappointment than explosive growth for XRP holders. While the idea of “Uptober” may sound exciting, the history of XRP shows its performance in October is scattered, unpredictable, and often hostile.
Q4 Patterns Show Risk Of Relying On Seasonal Myths
Some traders argue that even if October is not always a great month, the XRP price usually performs well in the final quarter of the year. Indeed, the last quarter has sometimes delivered big rallies, and the average Q4 return for XRP is nearly 88%. But these results are heavily skewed by a few extraordinary years. When the numbers are balanced, the median return for Q4 is actually a loss of 4.32%.
The negative median Q4 return shows that the perception of Q4 strength is not as reliable as many believe. The standout rallies do not represent the typical outcome. Instead, most years end up modest or even negative. The pattern points to risk, not certainty, for those who assume every Q4 will bring green candles.
Past data proves that while extraordinary runs are possible, they are rare, and the more common result is far less exciting. XRP could still surprise to the upside, but history warns against treating October as a guaranteed month of gains. Believing the hype without considering the risks may leave investors unprepared for disappointment.
